Spongy Brain

I went to bed with a headache on Saturday night, then woke up with the same headache on Sunday morning. I think that makes it a migraine. It persisted until yesterday (Tuesday) lunchtime - definitely a migraine. By then it was also backache. How did that happen? I took a couple of sick days anyway. I hate doing that, so embarrassing to have to tell one's manager. I always think they are wondering whether I'm lying. Back at work today anyway. I feel better, but my head is full of cotton wool.

Look, I know not everyone is a politics junky like me, but I just have to do an analysis of the Gordon Brown situation. There are now a bunch of about a dozen labour MPs calling for a leadership contest. It's not a big enough number to force a contest, but it's a significant number, and they simply won't go away. Gordon has now sacked four ministers I think because they have publicly supported a leadership debate. One minister has resigned.

Leadership challenges are common of course, and not in themselves very interesting, but this is fascinating because of the timing. Brown was not elected as PM, and if he was replaced there would be calls for an election. Most pundits are saying there would have to be an election within months of any new leader being appointed. But the Labour party is doing so consistently badly in the polls that they would almost certainly lose. They could even come in third. Consequently, no one is willing to put themself forward as a challenger because, win or lose the contest, they would almost certainly ruin their career. The best they could hope for would be a couple of months as PM. Also, the Labour party is desperately short of funds right now. They are in no shape to fight an election, even if they were doing better in the polls.

We're also in conference season. Usually party conferences boost the popularity of a party. It seems very odd to me that the Labour party has embarked upon this civil war just before the conference. The only explanation is surely that the people behind this rebellion have come to the conclusion that there is no way the party can regain popularity unless they change leader. It's a hell of a gamble.

Opposition parties are laughing their collective arses off. THE Tory party is keeping quiet. The Lib Dems seem to have come out fighting. Nick Clegg has been using his conference speech to make joke after joke at the expense of the Labour party and Gordon Brown. David Cameron may of course do the same when the Tory conference begins in a couple of weeks. I can hardly wait.

The interesting thing is the fact that the government is currently spending so much time putting out internal fires, that it is beginning to look very much like they are neglecting the rather more important task of governing the country. It has been a truly horrifying couple of days on the financial markets. Huge banking organisations are collapsing on both sides of the Atlantic, and one has to wonder, did anyone in the government notice the Lehman Bros collapse, or the AIG crisis, or were they too busy biting chunks out of each other?

I can't see that there can be a leadership contest now simply because there is no one willing to stand against Brown. Brown should have done what John Major did when the same thing happened to him. He stood up in front of parliament and told them to "Put up or shut up". It was the most famous thing Major ever said, and the problem went away overnight. But I think Brown has already burnt that boat by refusing to hand out nomination papers at the conference. So he has to stick by his decision to not allow a challenge. And as a result, the infighting will continue.

All of which leads me to conclude that there can be only two possible outcomes:

The PM will be replaced. The Labour infighting will stop, but there will be a general election (which they will lose) because the new leader will be the second unelected PM in 18 months.

or

The PM will remain. The Labour infighting will continue, and there will be a general election (which they will lose) because the electorate will perceive the government as unable to govern.